Jeremy Goldberg, «Two Assyrian Campaigns against Hezehiah and Later Eight Century Biblical Chronology», Vol. 80 (1999) 360-390
The massive Assyrian invasion of Judah in 701 (reflected in 2 Kgs 18,13b; 18,1719,37) has apparently been confused with an earlier, limited invasion in Hezekiahs 14th year (reflected in 2 Kgs 18,13a.14-16; 2 Kgs 20; 2 Chr 32; Isa 22). Historically, this earlier campaign can best be dated to 712, when Sargon II apparently led the Assyrian royal guard on a Palestinian campaign. Chronologically, this dating fits perfectly with e.g. recent dating of the definitive fall of Samaria (2 Kgs 18,9: in Hezekiahs 6th year) to 720. 2 Kgs 18,9s parallel dating to Hosheas 9th year agrees with his apparent accession in 731 or 729. Dating Menahems death to 743 (as required, following biblical data, to avoid a triple overlap among Uzziah, Jotham and Ahaz) agrees with Eponym Chronicle evidence for this dating of 2 Kgs 15,19-20s presumably already desperate fiasco, and is consistent with a plausibly composite 738 tribute-list naming Menahem. Combining these datings produces a workable later 8th century biblical chronology.
An accession-date of 729 for Hoshea would date his 9th year, very attractively, to the known fall of Samaria in 720 (so already Smith)72 if the chronographic data for Hoshea are based on postdating. Such usage does appear to be indicated (assuming no changes in chronographic conventions during this period) by a combination of data involving Hoshea (whose reign for 9 years [2 Kgs 17,1] presumably ended with the fall of Samaria in his 9th year) and Menahem (who acceded in year 39 of Uzziah and ruled 10 years, but died in year 50 of Uzziah [2 Kgs 15,17.23]): The evidence involving Hoshea implies that Israelite regnal year totals from this period have been rounded off (as very widely accepted). This makes Menahems 10th year his last, implying that it overlapped with year 50 of Uzziah. This is only possible (in view of the year 39 datum) if Menahem used postdating73.
In short: rather than impeaching sections 2-3s argument for dating the biblical fall of Samaria to 720, 2 Kgs 17,6; 18,10s Israelite synchronisms fit extremely well with this dating.
5. Dating the Death of Menahem to 743 and Later 8th Century Biblical Chronology
The high dating of Hezekiahs accession (c.727-725) can be criticized for entailing (on the basis of biblical data) a triple overlap among Uzziah, Jotham and Ahaz74. Lowering the date of Pekahs replacement by Hoshea (cf. 2 Kgs 15,30; 17,1: in year 20 of Jotham / year 12 of Ahaz) from c.731 to 729 minimizes this difficulty by dating Ahazs accession to 741 or 740 (rather than slightly earlier). But since Menahem died in year 50 of Uzziah and Uzziah reigned for 52 years (2 Kgs 15,2.23), the fit remains too tight (cf. Fig.1 below) unless Menahems death can be dated to 74375. This conflicts with a currently accepted upper limit of 73876.