Jeremy Goldberg, «Two Assyrian Campaigns against Hezehiah and Later Eight Century Biblical Chronology», Vol. 80 (1999) 360-390
The massive Assyrian invasion of Judah in 701 (reflected in 2 Kgs 18,13b; 18,1719,37) has apparently been confused with an earlier, limited invasion in Hezekiahs 14th year (reflected in 2 Kgs 18,13a.14-16; 2 Kgs 20; 2 Chr 32; Isa 22). Historically, this earlier campaign can best be dated to 712, when Sargon II apparently led the Assyrian royal guard on a Palestinian campaign. Chronologically, this dating fits perfectly with e.g. recent dating of the definitive fall of Samaria (2 Kgs 18,9: in Hezekiahs 6th year) to 720. 2 Kgs 18,9s parallel dating to Hosheas 9th year agrees with his apparent accession in 731 or 729. Dating Menahems death to 743 (as required, following biblical data, to avoid a triple overlap among Uzziah, Jotham and Ahaz) agrees with Eponym Chronicle evidence for this dating of 2 Kgs 15,19-20s presumably already desperate fiasco, and is consistent with a plausibly composite 738 tribute-list naming Menahem. Combining these datings produces a workable later 8th century biblical chronology.
the king of Assyria withdrew and did not remain there in the country"90. However, translating w as "but"91 yields a straight-forward account of a fiasco. This evident fiasco also fits very well with Menahems death in 743 (as required to avoid a triple overlap among Uzziah, Jotham and Ahaz), since it means that 2 Kgs 15,20s memorably onerous and so extremely plausibly already desperate taxation to pay off Tiglath-Pileser III bought Menahem little but ill-will from his kingdom.
This scenario for the latest reign of Menahem also allows a rather satisfactory resolution to the difficult problem of Pekahs reign for 20 years (2 Kgs 15,27). One common solution (inconsistent with Fig.1) is antedating on Pekahs part (as a sheer fabrication) back to the death of Zechariah. But this begs the question of how such a fiction was perpetuated: Pekah was succeeded by his assassin Hoshea and survived by his Judaean foe Ahaz. This fiction also has a very improbable corollary, the origin of Jothams accession in year 2 of Pekah (2 Kgs 15,32) as a calculated synchronism. There is no evidence for the use of such a procedure by MT92 and such an origin appears especially unlikely for the Pekah / Jotham synchronisms due to their seeming slight numerical discordance with each other93. The principal alternative to antedating by Pekah is inclusion in his 20 years of a period as counter-king (pace 2 Kgs 15,27s clearly impossible and universally rejected: "in Samaria 20 years" [literal translation]). The existence of such a rival to Menahem fits extremely well with his voluntary payment of a very onerous bribe for military help. The only real objection to Pekahs counter-kingship arises from his service as an officer under Menahems son Pekahiah (2 Kgs 15,25) prior to assassinating him. However a pseudo-reconciliation between Pekah and Pekahiah is very plausible if Menahem died shortly after Tiglath-Pileser IIIs intervention: Pekahiah would still have been heavily tainted by Menahems unpopular taxation and Pekah (in addition to welcoming access to Pekahiahs person) would still have been weakened by whatever momentary help Menahem had derived from Tiglath-Pileser94.